Some estimates suggest that between 350,000 and 600,000 people were killed in the conflict, which broke out in November 2020 and ran for two years. The deal was signed in November 2022, and ended a civil war between the TPLF – the main party in the coalition that ruled Ethiopia between 19 – and the federal Ethiopian government. We continue to expect that the peace deal signed between Ethiopia’s federal authorities and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) will remain in place in the coming quarters, providing tailwinds to political stability. Risks to our views are tilted to the downside – if tensions within the Tigrayan leadership escalate, the implementation of the peace deal could be in danger, leading to rising security risks across Ethiopia.However, we note that security risks remain elevated in the Oromia and Amhara provinces, preventing a further improvement in Ethiopia’s security outlook.We continue to expect that the peace deal signed between Ethiopia’s federal authorities and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) will remain in place in the coming quarters, providing tailwinds to political stability, as will rapprochement with Egypt over the controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
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